A look at the day ahead from Danilo Masoni.
A wild week for global earnings kicks off today seemingly in a cautious fashion as profit revisions slow down while inflation and supply chain pressures risk squeezing margins in a season that could set the direction of travel in the weeks ahead.
The overall picture looks still strong though as the economy remains in recovery mode, offsetting for now angst over central banks tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.
The S&P 500 is just below its record peak and the number of companies that have beaten expectations in the third quarter is now close to 84%, while STOXX 600 beats in Europe are past 60% so far, per Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.
But the wariness is justifiable, especially with Big Tech results packing the calendar this week just as investors fall out of love with pandemic darlings, lured by the attractions of cheaply valued stocks.
Eyes are on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), which starts the season for the FAANG group today following a 26% drop in Snap (NYSE:SNAP) shares on Friday after the ad firm warned of a hit from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) privacy tweaks.
Meanwhile, a long unloved sector, banks, is finding fresh demand from the changing macro environment. HSBC surprised with a 74% rise in profit as concerns about pandemic-related bad loan receded, allowing it to announce a $2 billion buyback. Its shares rose to a 4-month high in Hong Kong.
Futures on main European and U.S. benchmark indexes were trading just a tad in the black, while crude oil prices continued their race to new multi-year peaks and U.S. 10-year treasury yields held a five-month high of 1.7% hit last week.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday: * HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2 blnbuyback * Italy, UniCredit fail to clinch Monte dei Paschi rescuedeal * Exor (OTC:EXXRF) in new talks with Covea over scrapped $9bn sale ofPartnerRE – report * Kazakhstan central bank meets * German Ifo October * U.S. building permits * U.S. earnings: Kimberley Clark, Facebook, Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI),Packaging (NYSE:PKG) Corp of America
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